CMSA New Technologies in Mathematics: A Bayesian neural network predicts the dissolution of compact planetary systems


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April 14, 2021 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
via Zoom Video Conferencing

Miles Cranmer - Princeton University

Despite over three hundred years of effort, no solutions exist for predicting when a general planetary configuration will become unstable. I will discuss our deep learning architecture (arxiv:2101.04117) which pushes forward this problem for compact systems. While current machine learning algorithms in this area rely on scientist-derived instability metrics, our new technique learns its own metrics from scratch, enabled by a novel internal structure inspired from dynamics theory. The Bayesian neural network model can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to five-planet systems, even outperforming models designed for that specific set of integrations. I will also discuss some work on recovering symbolic representations of such models using arxiv:2006.11287.